At the end of 2023, the Munich Re Foundation began funding a holistic early warning system against natural hazards in South Africa as part of the RISK Award. The project partner in lead is the local non-profit organisation AWARD (the Association for Water and Rural Development), which focuses primarily on water management issues in South Africa. Organised by AWARD, employees of the foundation had the opportunity to learn about project details, hurdles, successes and background information on site during a field trip in summer 2024. Why is the health risk increasing to such an extent that a new warning system is needed? How does this relate to rainfall and droughts? When does climate change come into play?
The project area is located to the south-west and south of the Kruger National Park in South Africa. Mbombela, the capital of the province of Mpumalanga, forms the regional centre. To the west and south are imposing mountains in which many mineral resources are stored. Several rivers, including the Crocodile River and Sabie, together form the Inkomati water catchment area, which extends beyond South Africa to Eswatini (upstream) and Mozambique (downstream). Along the rivers, many rural villages are nestled amongst the river bends. The water source is vital for the survival of the people here. As not all settlements are connected to the tap water system, the water from the rivers is not only used to irrigate the gardens and fields, but also as drinking, washing and cooking water. The inhabitants are dependent on good quality water. Population growth is high, as is unemployment, unfortunately.
While it is usually dry from March to October, relatively intense rains can occur in the local summer months (November to February). This means there can be periods of drought as well as heavy rainfall with corresponding flooding. The water levels in the rivers fluctuate accordingly. To counteract this hazard and reduce risks, the local Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency (IUCMA) already has a water monitoring and management system in place. Rainfall, water levels and moisture are monitored and evaluated and information is passed on to the relevant administrative units. However, the fundamentals in the region are beginning to change and require interventions in the existing risk management system.
Climate change alters hazards
On the one hand, existing precipitation patterns are changing as a result of climate change. Dry phases are turning into long-lasting droughts, while the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall is increasing. Planning is becoming more difficult and the adaptability of the local population, economy and infrastructure is reaching its limits. For this reason, the monitoring system must be constantly optimised and expanded. Communication channels to the local population must also be improved, as real time warnings are currently not communicated directly to the population.
Global economy influences risk
On the other hand, a completely new problem arises, which is much more complex than it initially appears: As explained, the water levels of the rivers drop, in some cases drastically, during the increasingly dry phases. This means that the absolute volume of water in the rivers also decreases. As described at the beginning, a lot of mining is carried out in the local mountains: gold, phosphate and platinum in particular are mined in the region. Toxic substances such as uranium, radium and arsenic are released during mining. Unfortunately, these are often discharged into the rivers largely unfiltered. In the past, when water levels and mining activity were ‘normal’, these substances were usually diluted in the rivers to such an extent that there was no direct health risk to the local population. The limits set by the World Health Organisation (WHO) were usually adhered to. However, as water volumes have been decreasing more and more recently, the proportion of toxic substances in the water has risen, posing considerable health risks for the local flora and fauna and the people who use the water.
There is also another, more economic risk driver. Due to technological developments worldwide, the demand for raw materials such as gold and platinum is increasing rapidly. This means that mining operations are producing at full capacity. Existing environmental standards are no longer able to cope with the new realities given the speed at which operations are expanding, or they are simply not being complied with. In the (few) cases where their absence or non-compliance is sanctioned, penalties can be paid relatively easily. The costs for this are often lower than the costs for a necessary sustainable adjustment of production. To put it bluntly: mechanisation, digitalisation and the energy transition in the Global North are driving the hunger for raw materials worldwide. In combination with climate change and increasing droughts, coupled with insufficiently developed environmental standards or inadequate monitoring of these, this leads to massive risks in our project region too.
AWARD is working on integrating a health warning layer into the existing IUCMA warning system. This requires masses of data that are currently being collected from the rivers. The situation will only change if the cause and effect of pollutants can be clearly identified. At the same time, the NGO is working with those responsible at various municipal levels in order to implement a risk management system not only against floods and droughts, but also against health hazards. Above all, the communication channels of warnings to the local population must be clearly defined. This is not enough either: in the communities, NGO employees work in risk awareness workshops to sensitise people to the dangers. In a final step, adaptation measures must also be developed in the event of an emergency - and funding must also be clarified.
The field trip and the many discussions on site showed that there is an urgent need to expand and update the existing system in order to prepare for new hazards. Governmental resources are limited, so a large number of civil society projects and development cooperation efforts will be necessary to cushion the new risks. Without the support of local politicians, decision-makers and further key stakeholders, however, little will change. AWARD is therefore in good dialogue with the relevant departments of the City of Mbombela municipal administration.
With the help of the RISK Award funding, important components such as data collection, processing, updating the existing warning system, communication with local stakeholders and awareness-raising among the population can be promoted.
However, the financing and implementation of real adaptation measures on site, should the water from the rivers be too toxic for use, is a long-term task that is still in its infancy. Follow-up funding must be found here in order to make the project a holistic success.
